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Altman outlines three AI endgames: global regulator, lab merger, or hardware-killing winner

#ai-governance#openai#sam-altman#ai-race

According to The Information, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman told employees at an internal meeting that the AI race could end in one of three ways: a global regulatory body akin to the IAEA, a merger of top labs into one organization, or a single company achieving a breakthrough that lets it disable rivals' hardware. Altman called the last scenario 'terrible' and linked the options to proposals by Demis Hassabis and Eliezer Yudkowsky.

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  1. 机器之心机器之心
    奥特曼预判AI三种终局：最坏能让对手GPU集体瘫痪

    编辑｜牛来 据《The Information》报道，近日，OpenAI 首席执行官萨姆・奥特曼（Sam Altman）在内部员工会议上，提出了 AI 竞赛的三种可能终局： 其一是成立全球性监管机构，其二是顶级实验室合并为一，其三则是某家公司率先突破关键技术，甚至有能力让竞争对手的硬件陷入瘫痪。 最后一种结局听起来像科幻电影里的剧情，奥特曼本人也直言，这是「糟糕透顶」的结局。 三条路径，每条都有代价 Altman 提出的第一条路径，是 建立一个类似国际原子能机构（IAEA）的全球监管组织 。 这个机构可以对最先进的 AI 系统进行监督，制定统一的安全标准，并要求开发企业接受独立审查。 早在 2023 年 5 月，Altman 就曾与 OpenAI 联合创始人 Greg Brockman、时任首席科学家 Ilya Sutskever 共同发表文章《超智能治理》（Governance of Superintelligence）。 链接：https://openai.com/index/governance-of-superintelligence/ 文章提出，未来可能需要建立类似 IAEA 的国际机构，对达到特定能力或算力门槛的 AI 开发活动实施监管，包括系统检查、安全审计、合规测试，以及算力和能源消耗监测。 不过，AI 已经成为各国重点投入的战略技术，国际监管涉及技术保密、国家安全和产业竞争。各国能否接受统一规则，仍然存在很大不确定性。 第二条路径是 全球领先的 AI 实验室可能最终合并为一家机构 。 Altman 将其称为「Demis 方案」，Demis Hassabis 曾提出，AI 研究可以借鉴欧洲核子研究中心（CERN）的模式，由多个国家共同建设和管理一个大型研究机构。 链接：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4poqjZlM8Lo 如果头部 AI 公司由同一个组织统一管理，就可以共享安全标准和实践经验，避免各家公司为了抢先发布产品而不断加快研发速度。 不过，最先进的模型、人才和算力全部集中到一个组织，该机构将拥有巨大的技术和经济影响力，如何避免权力过度集中，又会成为新的难题。 第三条 赢者通吃 路径 被 Altman 称为「Eliezer 方案」，是 AI 安全研究者 Eliezer Yudkowsky 提出的一类极端设想。

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