# Scaling Multilingual Mixture-of-Experts: How Language Coverage Changes Capacity and Compute Allocation

> Scaling experts from 1 to 32 cuts the multilingual loss penalty of expanding language coverage from 12 to 200 languages by 83%, with broader coverage favoring expert-heavy models.

- **Source:** [arXiv](https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.20247)
- **Published:** 2026-10-24
- **Permalink:** https://picx.dev/p/dMzeuK
- **Whiteboard:** https://picx.dev/p/dMzeuK/image

## Summary

# Scaling Multilingual Mixture-of-Experts: How Language Coverage Changes Capacity and Compute Allocation

**Authors:** Joel Dag, Nikit Srivastava, Hamada M. Zahera, Axel-Cyrille Ngonga Ngomo (Paderborn University)

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## Summary (Overview)

- **Core contribution:** Introduces a **repetition-aware joint scaling law** that relates language-modeling loss to the number of active parameters ($N$), training tokens per language ($D_t$), number of experts ($E$), and language coverage ($K$) for multilingual Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models.
- **Key finding (RQ1):** Increasing experts from $E=1$ to $E=32$ reduces the loss penalty of expanding from 12 to 200 languages by **83%** at matched training tokens per language, with consistent direction across seeds and external evaluations.
- **Key finding (RQ2):** Broader language coverage extends the compute range over which expert-heavy configurations are preferred, delaying the switch from more experts to fewer experts by up to **2.7×** in compute.
- **Key finding (RQ3):** Preserving average multilingual quality after language expansion can still leave many individual languages worse off—only 36% of original languages match or improve at the mean-preserving point.
- **Validation:** The law reduces prediction error by **28%** relative to the strongest evaluated baseline (JointMoE) on held-out configurations and by **45%** on a larger-model stress test, using 26,300 per-language loss observations from 64 pretrained configurations.

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## Introduction and Theoretical Foundation

### Background and Motivation

Multilingual pretraining enables a single model to support many languages through cross-lingual transfer (Conneau et al., 2020; Xue et al., 2021). However, extending language coverage introduces the **curse of multilinguality**: adding languages worsens performance on already-supported languages due to capacity competition.

Two existing approaches to mitigate this penalty:
- **Language-specific capacity:** X-MOD adds language-specific modules; X-ELM trains separate models on language subsets (Pfeiffer et al., 2022; Blevins et al., 2024). These tie capacity to pre-selected languages.
- **Sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE):** Models like mSwitch and LOLA store many experts while activating only a small subset per token, allowing capacity growth at approximately fixed per-token computation (Fedus et al., 2022; Srivastava et al., 2025).

### The Gap

Existing scaling laws fail to jointly address expert capacity and language coverage:
- **Multilingual laws** (He et al., 2025b; Longpre et al., 2026) study language sampling, transfer, and coverage costs but ignore expert capacity.
- **MoE laws** (Ludziejewski et al., 2025) study active parameter vs. expert allocation under compute/memory limits but treat data as a single distribution.

### Research Questions

1. **RQ1:** Does adding experts reduce what each additional language costs?
2. **RQ2:** How does broader language coverage change the preferred allocation between active and expert capacity under fixed resource budgets?
3. **RQ3:** When adding languages preserves average quality, how does this affect individual languages?

### Theoretical Foundation

The standard Chinchilla scaling law (Hoffmann et al., 2022) decomposes loss as:

$$L(N, D) = L_\infty + \frac{A}{N^\alpha} + \frac{B}{D^\beta}$$

where $L_\infty$ is the asymptotic entropy floor, $A, B$ are coefficients, and $\alpha, \beta$ are scaling exponents. JointMoE extends this with expert count, while ATLAS adds training tokens per language and language coverage.

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## Methodology

### Problem Setting

A training configuration fixes the number of active parameters $N$, number of experts $E$, and number of training languages $K$. Each target language $t$ receives $D_t$ training tokens. The goal is to predict validation loss $L_t(N, D_t, E, K)$ for each language.

### Core Joint Law

The proposed **core joint law** models per-language loss as:

$$L_{\infty,t} + \frac{A_t E^\delta K^{\phi(E)}}{N^{\alpha(E)}} + \frac{B_t E^\omega K^{\psi(E)}}{D_t^{\beta(E)}}$$

where:
- $L_{\infty,t}$, $A_t$, $B_t$ are language-specific coefficients
- $E^\delta$, $E^\omega$ scale loss terms with expert count (following JointMoE)
- $K^{\phi(E)}$, $K^{\psi(E)}$ scale with language coverage (following ATLAS)
- Exponents vary with experts via log-linear parameterization:

$$q(E) = a_q + b_q \ln(E), \quad q \in \{\alpha, \beta, \phi, \psi\}$$

### Predictive Refinements

Three refinements address simplifying assumptions:

**1. Parameter–data coupling:** Add factor $N^\zeta$ to the data-limited term, allowing capacity to change the benefit of additional training tokens.

**2. Coverage-dependent parameter scaling:** Allow the exponent of $N$ to vary with coverage:

$$\alpha(E, K) = \alpha(E) + \gamma_N g(K)$$

where $g(K) = \max\{0, \log(K/K_0)\}$ grows with log coverage above reference $K_0$.

**3. Data repetition:** Replace $D_t$ with effective exposure $D_t^{eff}$:

$$D_t^{eff} = \min(D_t, U_t) + U_t \cdot r\left(1 - e^{-rR_t}\right)$$

where $U_t$ is unique tokens, $R_t = \max(D_t/U_t - 1, 0)$ is repeated passes, and $r = \lambda_0 P^\rho$ depends on total stored parameters $P$.

### Selected Law

Combining refinements while keeping $\phi, \psi$ independent of $E$:

$$L_t(N, D_t, E, K) = L_{\infty,t} + \frac{A_t E^\delta K^\phi}{N^{\alpha(E,K)}} + \frac{B_t E^\omega K^\psi N^\zeta}{(D_t^{eff})^{\beta(E)}}$$

This has 12 shared coefficients plus 3 per-language coefficients.

### Experimental Setup

- **Architectures:** Decoder-only Transformers with SwiGLU feed-forward layers; Top-1 MoE for sparse configurations
- **Grid:** $E \in \{1, 4, 16, 32\}$, $N \in \{93, 190, 349, 590\}$M active parameters, $K \in \{1, 12, 50, 200\}$ languages → **64 configurations, 400 endpoints, 26,300 loss observations**
- **Data:** FineWeb (English) + FineWeb2 (other languages); temperature sampling at exponent 0.3
- **Evaluation:** Unigram-adjusted validation loss:

$$L_t = -\frac{1}{T_t} \sum_{i=1}^{T_t} \log \frac{p_\theta(w_i | w_{<i})}{p_{uni,t}(w_i)}$$

- **Held-out evaluation:** Three splits withholding $N \approx 590$M, $E = 32$, or $K = 200$; plus a stress test with 1.15B active / 21.23B stored parameters

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## Empirical Validation / Results

### Scaling Law Evaluation

**Table 1: Prediction RMSE across held-out configurations**

| Scaling Law | N≈590M | E=32 | K=200 | Mean RMSE | Larger Model |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Baselines with original inputs* | | | | | |
| Chinchilla (D) | 0.10630 | 0.13127 | 0.22741 | 0.15499 | 0.23611 |
| JointMoE (D) | 0.08943 | 0.08668 | 0.20957 | 0.12856 | 0.25269 |
| Adaptive ATLAS (N) | 0.07088 | 0.11284 | 0.10160 | 0.09511 | 0.23349 |
| *Baselines with alternative inputs* | | | | | |
| Chinchilla (Dₜ) | 0.07147 | 0.11326 | 0.10171 | 0.09548 | 0.23403 |
| JointMoE (Dₜ) | 0.04241 | 0.03342 | 0.06267 | **0.04617** | 0.24733 |
| Adaptive ATLAS (P) | 0.07257 | 0.09142 | 0.08057 | 0.08152 | 0.25556 |
| *Our joint laws* | | | | | |
| Core joint law | 0.05859 | 0.03830 | 0.05511 | 0.05067 | 0.27880 |
| + coupling + coverage scaling | 0.03533 | 0.03049 | 0.04507 | 0.03696 | 0.31586 |
| **Repetition-aware joint law (ours)** | **0.02921** | **0.02576** | **0.04461** | **0.03319** | **0.17298** |

**Key results:**
- The repetition-aware law outperforms the strongest baseline (JointMoE with $D_t$) by **28%** on held-out configurations
- On the larger-model stress test, accounting for repetition reduces RMSE from 0.31586 to 0.17298 (45% improvement)
- The law transfers to changed language mixtures with **74%** RMSE reduction vs. strongest baseline

### RQ1: Language Coverage Cost

At matched training tokens per language, the mean loss penalty of expanding from 12 to 200 languages:

| Experts (E) | Mean Penalty (ΔL) |
|---|:---:|
| 1 (dense) | 0.0796 |
| 4 | 0.0648 |
| 16 | 0.0321 |
| 32 | **0.0135** |

**83% reduction** in coverage penalty from $E=1$ to $E=32$. Across alternative 12-language mixtures, expert expansion reduces the loss increase by 76.6–93.3%. The direction is consistent across three seeds (83.6%, 82.6%, 66.4% reductions at ~190M active parameters).

External evaluation confirms the interaction: expert gains on FLORES (22–57%) and NTREX (20–62%) at $K=200$ relative to $K=12$.

### RQ2: Capacity Allocation

- Under a 0.4B total-parameter budget, the preferred switch from 92.8M active/16 experts to 190.3M active/4 experts occurs at:
  - $1.70 \times 10^{18}$ FLOPs for $K=12$
  - $2.75 \times 10^{18}$ FLOPs for $K=200$ (**1.62× delay**)
- At 5.1B total-parameter budget, the predicted $E=32 \rightarrow 16$ switch occurs at:
  - $4.51 \times 10^{19}$ FLOPs for $K=1$
  - $1.22 \times 10^{20}$ FLOPs for $K=200$ (**2.70× delay**)

### RQ3: Per-Language Preservation

Starting from a 50-language reference at $2 \times 10^{18}$ FLOPs (2.2B total parameters, 32 experts):

| Preservation Target | Required Compute |
|---|---|
| Match training tokens per language | 1.75× reference |
| Preserve **mean** quality | 1.92× reference |
| Preserve **all 50 languages** | 2.32× reference |

At the mean-preserving point, only **36%** of original languages match or improve upon their reference loss.

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## Theoretical and Practical Implications

### Theoretical Contributions

1. **Joint scaling law:** First law to simultaneously model active parameters, training tokens per language, expert count, and language coverage for multilingual MoEs, with per-language (not just average) prediction.

2. **Repetition awareness:** Demonstrates that distinguishing total training tokens from unique data is critical for extrapolation to longer training runs—the core law fails on larger models but the repetition-aware refinement succeeds.

3. **Coverage-dependent capacity allocation:** Shows that language coverage should be treated as a capacity-allocation variable, not just a data-distribution property.

### Practical Implications

1. **Model design guidance:** Broader language coverage favors expert-heavy configurations across wider compute ranges, informing architecture choices for multilingual models.

2. **Evaluation standards:** Mean loss is insufficient as a target—capacity planning must specify whether the goal is preserving average quality or per-language quality.

3. **Training efficiency:** Expert expansion provides a compute-efficient way to offset the curse of multilinguality without increasing per-token computation.

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## Conclusion

The paper demonstrates that **expert expansion changes the effect of increased language coverage** rather than merely lowering loss overall. The key findings:

1. **Expert capacity mitigates coverage costs:** $E=32$ reduces the loss penalty of expanding from 12 to 200 languages by 83% at matched training tokens per language.

2. **A repetition-aware joint scaling law** over $N$, $D_t$, $E$, and $K$ improves held-out prediction by 28% over the strongest baseline and transfers to larger models and changed mixtures.

3. **Coverage shifts capacity allocation:** Broader language coverage extends the compute range favoring expert-heavy configurations.

4. **Average quality ≠ per-language quality:** Preserving mean loss can leave many individual languages worse off, making per-language evaluation essential.

### Future Directions

- Extending to different architectures, corpora, and training regimes
- Incorporating hardware-specific costs (communication, memory, parallelism)
- Investigating expert granularity and routing strategies beyond Top-1
- Developing more nuanced per-language preservation criteria

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## Limitations

- Main factorial grid uses one training seed (though key comparisons are replicated across 3 seeds)
- Conclusions apply to decoder-only, Top-1 MoE with $E \leq 32$, fixed tokenizer, and specific corpus/sampling
- Allocation results use logical compute ($F \approx 6ND$); actual hardware costs depend on communication and memory overheads
- Web-derived corpora may inherit biases; checkpoints not evaluated for deployment safety

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